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 Welcome to the Liberty Dome in New York for SPNY 124. Tonight’s MMA rules card will be headlined by the Middleweight Title fight between Champion Alexei Surov and the challenger Robert Van Winkle. The undercard will be headed up by what most are expecting to be a Light Heavyweight Title eliminator between Oscar Salcedo and Haloti Gnata.
Main Event: Middleweight Title
Alexei Surov (c) 24-10 (2-0 SPNY) vs Robert Van Winkle 19-8 (2-0 SPNY)
Back from his latest round of Superfights to defend his title Surov represents the pinnacle of ground fighting; not only was he a champion wrestler in his native Russia he is also a red belt in BJJ. Surov has near perfect grappling technique, managing to submit his opponent in half his wins. His only true weakness in the past has come against fighters trained in Muay Thai boxing.
Van Winkle faces the amazing situation that as a former USA Olympic wrestling representative and a black belt in BJJ he is considered the weaker grappler in this fight. Earning his shot at this title coming off 3 consecutive wins, there is a feeling amongst fans he may not be able to win the title based on his inability to finish opponents; 12 of his 19 career wins have been by decision including his last 6 wins. Tonight he may well look to keep the fight on its feet where he is likely to be able to outscore Surov.
Personally I’d like to see this fight on the ground where two of the best grapplers in SPNY would let it all hang out. But I suspect Van Winkle may try to exploit Surov’s inferior striking game to earn the judges favour, something made easier by his 5 inch reach advantage. With that in mind, I pick the challenger Van Winkle to win by decision.
2: Light Heavyweight
Oscar Salcedo 25-15 (7-3 SPNY) vs Haloti Gnata 16-5 (13-5 SPNY)
After a long career as an undersized Heavyweight Salcedo finally made the moce down to 205 for his last fight and impressed with a 2nd round TKO of Zachery Rey. A former professional boxer and also an accomplished wrestler, Salcedo brings an all or nothing style to the cage that thrills fans, 30 of his 40 career fights have been stopped one way or the other in the 1st round. Don’t expect him to throw as many strikes as Gnata, but expect every shot to carry a lot of power.
Gnata has had a long career with SPNY, but is for the first time in a serious position to challenge for the Light Heavyweight Title. Coming in off 3 straight wins, it is expected that a win tonight will give him the chance to challenge Toby Le Rone. Primarily a boxer but without Salcedo’s history of professional boxing, he will probably throw and connect with more punches. While Gnata finishes most of his fights with a KO, he is more adept at wearing down an opponent with strikes than landing one big shot.
Salcedo will go all out looking for the big shot to finish the Gnata early, and Gnata will crisply work away landing regular strikes with his 4 inch reach advantage. I find Salcedo exciting to watch, but I rate Gnata to upset him with a TKO here.
3: Bantamweight
Jack Clark 20-16 (6-4 SPNY) vs Andrey Tutov 7-5 (1-0 SPNY)
Veteran Clark will be hoping his long standing relationship with SPNY fans can get him over the line against the highly rated young Tutov. Clark is primarily a boxer who has struggled with defensive technique throughout his career. Still only 28, the 36 professional fights he has had will begin to take their toll on him soon and he sees this fight as possibly his one last chance to rise up to be a title challenger. The one dimensional aspect to his offensive arsenal will no doubt continue to hinder him during this fight.
Tutov is an up and coming 22 year old from Russia who may have turned professional before he was truly ready, but now he is beginning to turn a few heads having claimed his 3rd straight win in his last fight. A top boxer with a brown belt in BJJ he has shown a willingness to outwork his opponents and to make the most of whatever situation he finds himself in during a fight. Tonight his challenge will be to overcome the experience of Clark.
Tutov is more versatile than Clark and has shown a willingness to work harder during his fights, that coupled with Clark’s poor striking defence should be enough to see Tutov claim a KO win tonight.
4: Lightweight
Reza Katebi 6-7 (4-6 SPNY) vs Yuki Nakai 27-15 (0-1 SPNY)
Katebi throughout his career has been far too reliant on his jujitsu skills to win fights via submission, this predictability has seen him to date lose more fights than he has won. The same can be said of Nakai, who has won 17 of his 27 career wins by submission and comes into tonight on a 4 fight losing streak. Should Katebi lose tonight the question will be raised if he has any future in SPNY, should Nakai lose it may well raise the question of whether or not he still has the ability to compete at the top level.
I rate Katebi to claim this one by decision, Nakai has been on a downward spiral and I don’t see it ending tonight.
5: Heavyweight
Al Al Kaholic 33-19 (0-3 SPNY) vs Matt Matthews 7-2 (1-1 SPNY)
In a case of veteran vs future superstar Kaholic meets Matthews. Kaholic was once one of the most feared Heavyweights in the world, but now 38 he is reportedly broke and has won just 1 of his last 9 fights. Early in his career Kaholic was known as a knockout specialist being well grounded in both boxing and Muay Thai. These days he lacks the power he once had and has been caught out by his opponents who are increasingly finding their way through his defences. Matthews is a brilliant wrestler relying almost entirely on his ability to take fighters down at will and finish them quickly. No fight of his has gone past the first round, however, twice now he has been caught out by good stand up fighters who have raised questions over his chin.
This should be the perfect chance for Kaholic to pull off a much needed win if he can land an early strike or two, but if Matthews lands a takedown he will finish Kaholic off quickly. Matthews by TKO.
6: Middleweight
Boris Ivanovic 24-11-1 (0-4 SPNY) vs Drago Kozlov 29-10 (0-2 SPNY)
Two Middleweights with strong career records who have yet to record a win in SPNY meet in this clash. Stand up fighter Ivanovic won his first 12 professional fights and was at one stage regarded as a potential superstar; that star has since faded to the point he has lost his last 5 fights. Kozlov also prefers to stand and fight and looks most dangerous in the clinch. Earlier in his career he had a 19 fight winning streak and was regarded as pound for pound amongst the top fighters in the world, he comes into tonight on a 2 fight losing streak and is desperate for the win.
I like Kozlov for this one, 1st round KO.
7: Welterweight
David Belkofer 16-10 (SPNY Debut) vs Toby Jay Wadenah 18-8-2 (0-1 SPNY)
Belkofer is set to make his SPNY debut tonight and is known as mainly a boxer, but a fighter willing to try anything to get a win. As such don’t be surprised to see him shoot for a takedown simply because Wadenah prefers to keep fights standing. Wadenah was not long ago considered one of the up and coming superstars of world MMA, however 5 losses in his last 6 fights including 4 in a row coming into tonight have seen his reputation plummet. Wadenah has trouble finishing an opponent, and the lack of respect opponents show to his power has seen him have trouble keeping fighters at range in recent fights.
I expect the new boy Belkofer to start his SPNY career with a KO win tonight.
8: Bantamweight
Ronald Rousey 7-5 (0-2 SPNY) vs Dmonray Malapitan 17-16 (7-6 SPNY)
Rousey is a 23 year old wrestler who has shown willingness early in his career to throw a lot of punches on his feet and a lot of strikes on the ground, but lacks the power to put away an opponent. While he can work on his strength and technique to fix that for the future, he now finds himself in the situation he has lost his last 3 fights. His opponent tonight is the veteran Malapitan who is primarily a grappler. While Malapitan has the ability to cause Rousey problems, I think most observers expect this to be a test for Rousey while he moves forwards rather than a chance for Malapitan to work his way back up that rankings.
I expect to see Rousey grind out a late KO.
9: Welterweight
Taneli Maija 6-4 (6-4 SPNY) vs Kim Smith 4-11 (0-2 SPNY)
Maija turned pro late in life and is already 30, a jujitsu specialist he has nothing more than the most basic abilities on his feet and does not have a true wrestling background. His opponent tonight, Smith, is really a boxer rather than a mixed martial artist and has been found out by opponents both in Muay Thai clinches and on the ground. This match up becomes interesting however, because should Smith stuff the early takedown attempt Maija’s lack of ability on his feet may see him vulnerable to Smith’s boxing.
I expect Maija by submission in the 1st.
10: Featherweight
Freddie Sargent 3-3 (1-2 SPNY) vs Cesar James The Reaper 4-1 (2-1 SPNY)
Jujitsu specialist Sargent will be hoping to get this fight to the ground early against The Reaper who prefers to stand and bang. Sargent has quite a good submission hold arsenal, but as yet lacks the striking ability either on his feet or on the ground to truly dominate opponets. The Reaper started his MMA career with decent boxing for a fighter his age, but whilst working hard to develop the rest of his skills has failed to move forward with boxing as a true strength.
I like The Reaper’s ability to land early strikes against Sargent and possibly get an early TKO. The Reaper by KO.
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