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 MAIN CARD
Main Event
Heavyweight Fight
#2 Frederick Frost (6-2, 5-1 NGF) v #12 Kent Phillips (11-3, 2-0 NGF)
Here is the 3rd Swan Song managed fighter on this card and like the previous two, once again, whatever problems are going on in this camp seems like it’s affecting the morale of all the fighters. Frederick Frost is a serious beast, but he has cut off all interviews and has seemed to just become a loaner as he has even left his gym. Frost has amazing power and he can end a fight with a single punch as he has 4 KO wins. He has solid striking defense and he is a pretty accurate striker landing 75% of his punches and 87% of his leg kicks. Kent Phillips joined NGF and has made a huge splash as he has two 1st round TKO wins with a win on 8/10 at NGF 67 and then again at NGF 70 on 8/17. Phillips recently changed management and since the switch, he’s flipped a switch and looks like a different fighter. He has gone more to the clinch in his last two fights and has dominated there. He has good striking defense and he has landed 94% of his clinch head punches. He doesn’t have much of a ground game, but with this matchup, he won’t have to worry about that. This is certainly a #1 contender fight as Phillips has jumped up the ranks quickly and now facing the #2 ranked fighter, he will have his first very big test. Frost has all the power in the world, he can win this if his head’s right, but unfortunately it doesn’t look like Swan Song cares too much about his fighters at the moment. I think Phillips has a very good chance at pulling off the upset in this one, he has looked great and he is my pick in this one. PREDICTION: Phillips 2nd round TKO
Co-Main Event:
Featherweight Fight
#13 Riviere Hinds (8-6, 4-2 NGF) v #7 Vaughn Shaunessey (17-7, 5-2 NGF)
Riviere Hinds will try and get put right in the middle of the title picture by beating former champion, Vaughn Shaunessey. Hinds is a smart fighter who is quick and can dart in, land some strikes and get out without taking too much damage. The only hole he has on his feet is he can’t avoid kicks; his opponents are landing 69% of their head kicks, 88% of their leg kicks and 72% of their body kicks. Hinds lacks Muay Thai skills in his game as he is not very good in the clinch and he is very inaccurate with his kicking. Hinds on the ground is averaging 11.1 ground strikes and he does a nice job of controlling from the top. Vaughn Shaunessey has got to turn this around and do it now. Shaunessey lost his title and all thoughts were he would fight one more fight and then get back into a title shot, well scratch that, he lost his last fight and he now needs to string a few wins together to get back to that title fight. Shaunessey has good stand up skills and he’s been excellent in the clinch, but he has no ground game at all. He has devastating elbows and knees, but if you can take him down, he has not been good allowing opponents to land 54% of their ground strikes, improve 51% successfully and he’s been submitted 2 times. Hinds is going to try and take Shaunessey down and Shaunessey does not have great take down defense, but if Vaughn can keep it standing, he can do real damage with his power. PREDICTION: Shaunessey 3rd round TKO
Light Heavyweight Fight
#9 Arek Rendziok (9-3, 0-0 NGF) v #4 Rogerio Mustacho (11-5, 10-5 NGF)
This looks like it will be a fantastic fight between Poland’s Arek Rendziok and Mexico’s Rogerio Mustacho. Rendziok is a beast on the mat; he is averaging 8.9 take downs per fight and 30 ground strikes per fight. He is strong and quick on the ground, and he will overwhelm his opponents and he will usually beat them into submission as he has 7 (T)KO’s. Rogerio Mustacho is a well-rounded fighter, he is solid on his feet, but he will tend to counter strike a little more, he is decent in the clinch, but he is an exceptional wrestler with fantastic take down skills and he is landing 78% of his ground strikes and he has 3 submission wins. Mustacho is good, but he lacks the power and a lot of his fights go to a decision. I think Rendziok will be able to get this fight down and he’ll be able to use his brilliant ground and pound to win this fight. PREDICTION: Rendziok 2nd round TKO
Featherweight Fight
Chan Sung Jung (5-3, 2-3 NGF) v #15 Gim Ruut (19-8, 1-3 NGF)
Chan Sung Jung has a very steep hill to climb in front of him in Gim Ruut. Jung is coming in after 2 straight losses and he’ll be fighting, possibly, in his last NGF fight. Jung is a good boxer, but his defense is down right terrible, in all areas too, he’s allowing opponents to land 80% of their head punches, 80% of their body punches, 100% of their leg kicks, 82% of their clinch head punches, 81% of their elbows, and 90% of their ground strikes…down right TERRIBLE. Gim Ruut has moved up a weight class to try and get things back on track after losing 3 straight fights. Ruut has really fallen off the rails of late as he’s continues to show the problem with is chin or his heart, one of the two as he has now been beaten all 8 times by T(KO). Ruut has amazing bjj skills, but he lacks any sort of offense in his game, he does very little in the way of strikes, but on the ground he is attempting 11.6 submissions per fight. Jung is a huge underdog in this one, he has to avoid the ground and try and land some hard strikes. PREDICTION: Ruut 1st round submission
Light Heavyweight Fight
John Clayton (6-3 NGF) v #13 Marek Jebut (8-3-1, 1-2 NGF)
John Clayton is a frustrating fighter, because he has shown great promise, but the things he does well in one fight ends up being what he gets beat at in the next. He is a accurate puncher and he has been successful on 88% of his take downs. He is fantastic on the top when he’s on the ground, but he’s awful on the bottom and his wrestling has been where he’s lost fights. Marek Jebut is looking to break a 2 fight losing streak in this one. The Polish Jebut, has fought two very good fights, but just has come up short in both of them. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he tends to be a wild, inaccurate striker, but he doesn’t get into too much trouble because his striking defense is very good. He has been beaten up in the clinch, but he is averaging 17.6 ground strikes per fight and he’s holding his opponents to a 16% ground strike landing percentage. This fight may very well end on the ground and I like Jebut with his ground skills. PREDICTION: Jebut 2nd round submission
PRELIM CARD
Middleweight Fight
Cal Paxton (6-3, 3-2 NGF) v #11 Bobby Newmark (12-6-1, 0-0 NGF)
Another Swan Song fighter who looks completely sad and un-interested in his fighting all of a sudden, Cal Paxton will step in to face NGF rookie Bobby Newmark. Paxton has very good power, but he’s all stand up and he’s been very bad on the ground. He likes to load up his strikes to land powerful shots, which at times opens himself up for counter strikes and take downs. Bobby Newmark has really gone off the rails as he’s lost 4 straight fights and maybe more disturbing is the fact that his power has completely dried up. He has elite striking defense and he is very aggressive as he averages 21.5 punches and 61.8 kicks per fight, including 30.8 leg kicks. I think this is going to be all stand up, but Newmark has sensational Muay Thai skills, that’s where I think this fight will be won. PREDICTION: Newmark decision win
Welterweight Fight
Andrew Golota (11-7, 6-5 NGF) v Roman Kowalski (9-8, 6-6 NGF)
32 year old Polish fighter, Andrew Golota is just 1-4 over his last 5 fights and he’s been finished in all 4 of those loses. He has decent power, but with 6 T(KO) loses, you have to wonder if he can take any sort of damage and still come back and win a fight. Golota just doesn’t land at a high efficiency to stay consistent. Poland is well represented in this fight as Poland’s Roman Kowalski tries to get back into the win column and break his 2 fight losing streak. Kowalski is a weird fighter, he is a brown belt in bjj, yet he has just 1 submission win and has been submitted 3 times, he has remarkable boxing skills, yet he allows his opponents to land 80% of their head punches. Kowalski tries very hard, but his lack of overall defense is just a killer and prevents him from winning on a regular basis. PREDICTION: Golota 2nd round TKO
Welterweight Fight
Lionel Cascara (11-7, 4-5 NGF) v Stringer Bell (6-2, 2-2 NGF)
Brazil’s Lionel Cascara might be fighting his last fight in the NGF and he’ll look to go out on a winning note. Cascara has decent stand up, but he lacks any sort of striking defense. He fights well in the clinch, but he will look to get a fight down to grind out wins or lock up submissions, he has 4 submission wins. Stringer Bell is very similar to Cascara as he can fight standing and on the ground. He is landing 79% of his head punches and 78% of his ground strikes. Bell has the advantage on his feet, but it is very close on the ground. I think Bell might be a little stronger and that may play a part in this one. PREDICTION: Bell 2nd round TKO
Heavyweight Fight
Archie Stewart (6-2, 4-2 NGF) v #7 Macros Motaro (5-3-1, 3-3 NGF)
Scottland’s Archie Stewart is really rolling with 3 straight wins and each one he’s fought very smart. Stewart lacks the power of most heavyweights, but he seems to be much quicker too. He is doing a excellent job of good stand up and then taking a fight to the mat where he’s been dominating as he’s landing 77% of his ground strikes. Macros Motaro is managed by Swan Song, and right now he, like most fighters under Song are just not in a good place. Motaro has very low morale and that’s sure to effect his fighting in this one. When he’s right, Motaro is a beast, good power with elite Muay Thai skills. I think Stewart keeps rolling in this one as Motaro will continue to fight like he doesn’t want to be here. PREDICTION: Stewart decision win
Middleweight Fight
Boleslaw Krol (7-5, 3-3 NGF) v Dennis Bird (9-4, 2-2 NGF)
Polish fighter, Boleslaw Krol is on a 2 fight losing streak and he’ll try and get back on the winning path by beating England’s Dennis Bird. Krol will clinch up and use dirty boxing mostly, he will also look to get a fight to the mat where he is averaging 17.4 ground strikes per fight. Dennis Bird has decent striking defense and good power in both hands. He’ll stay standing most of the time, but he does land 48% of his ground strikes, so he can fight there as well. I think Bird has the better power, but Krol is a little stronger on the ground. This is very even and could go either way. PREDICTION: Bird 2nd round TKO
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