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 Welcome to the Liberty Dome in New York City for SPNY 120, a ten fight MMA card featuring Toby Le Rone’s first Light Heavyweight Title defence against the in form Richie McCaw. Top pick of the earlier fights is the Light Heavyweight match up between title contender Joey Rodinerio Bravo and Haloti Gnata.
Main Event: Light Heavyweight Title
Toby Le Rone (c) 19-5 (5-2 SPNY) vs Richie McCaw 14-10 (3-0 SPNY)
Le Rone won the SPNY Light Heavyweight Title at his second attempt with a 4th round KO of Vieira Moreira earning him not only the title but also fight of the night honours. Primarily a stand up fighter, he has almost perfect defensive technique on the ground forcing his opponents to work very hard to find an opening. While he may have 12 career KOs, only 4 have come in the first round; this shows he relies on his skills and ability to grind an opponent down more than massive power. The later this fight goes the more I would favour Le Rone to win.
McCaw is one of the better ground fighters in SPNY, and should he manage to take Le Rone down his brilliant offensive skills on the ground would be well matched up against Le Rone’s defence. The issue is how much punishment McCaw will need to take to be able to get this fight to the ground. 8 of McCaw’s 10 career losses and his last 4 have all been by knockout and tonight he will risk making it 9 trying for the take down that Le Rone knows is coming.
Early on McCaw will look for a powerful takedown and Le Rone will counter by trying to tie him up in the clinch. If Le Rone gets the clinch expect him to rough McCaw up and wear him out for the knockout to come in the 2nd round. But if McCaw gets that early takedown be prepared to see one of the most interesting ground fights of the year. All together though, Le Rone by 2nd round KO looks the likely result.
2: Light Heavyweight
Joey Rodinerio Bravo 20-12-1 (1-0 SPNY) vs Haloti Gnata 15-5 (12-5 SPNY)
Relative newcomer to SPNY, Bravo is a submission fighting specialist with 17 of 20 career wins coming by tap out. Winning submission of the night honours on his SPNY debut, his big weakness is his predictability; expect no striking on the feet or in a clinch just takedown attempts, don’t expect him to throw any ground and pound just submission attempts.
Gnata has a huge advantage in that he knows exactly what to expect from Bravo. Gnata will come into this looking to stuff takedowns and throw counter punches knowing that if he can stuff the first 3 or 4 attempts he should have the opportunity to wear Bravo out and do some real damage with his hands. Gnata may be in trouble on the ground against someone as good as Bravo; he hasn’t fought a ground fighter of this quality often.
We know Bravo will just keep coming for the takedown and will probably get it eventually. The challenge for Gnata is to defend it early and counter with some heavy shots. I think Gnata will get the upset here and win it with a grinding 3rd round KO.
3: Light Heavyweight
Jonny Bones 15-7-3 (6-4-2 SPNY) vs Belin Billet 30-21-2 (2-1 SPNY)
Bones has thrown off his reputation as a solid journeyman type fighter with a 3 fight winning streak that if he can continue may put him in title contention. Extremely well rounded he looks comfortable on his feet, but working the ground and pound from on top is where we see him at his best. No real weaknesses are obvious looking at his style, but he needs a few big scalps before he can stake his claim.
I’m sure we were saying Billet was past his best 15 fights ago, but he doesn’t care what us commentators say he just keeps winning fights. Once upon a time Billet was a submission only type fighter, now he has become a fighter who can fight you and beat you anywhere. But the best part of Billet is that he is almost impossible to stop, only 6 times in a 53 fight career. While he won’t want to be on his back for too long against Bones, he will be able to counter the ground and pound with submission attempts.
Everything tell me the younger man Bones has this one in the bag, but I said the same thing about Nate MacRally and Billet dominated him in his last fight. I’ll still back Bones for this one, but he won’t have it easy and I think it’ll go to the scorecards.
4: Heavyweight
Frenchy Fuqua 26-22 (2-0 SPNY) vs Hoy Nelson 25-18 (1-3 SPNY)
Fuqua has had a perfect start to his SPNY career so far with wins in his first 2 starts. Known as “Glass Jaw” due to his habit of being knocked out almost every time he loses, he has never had the defensive technique needed to become an all time legend of the sport, but offensively is a top submission fighter with the ability to find a knockout win either on the ground or with his boxing. Nelson is a Muay Thai specialist whose style of fighting is a throwback to the early days of MMA when fighters only trained in their own discipline; whilst he has the defensive techniques in other disciplines, his offensive strategy is entirely the kicks and clinch work of his natural Muay Thai.
Nelson has been in mediocre form of late, but I see him shaking that tonight and recording a big KO in the 3rd.
5: Light Heavyweight
BJ Andrews 12-10 (2-3 SPNY) vs Clay Wilkinson 16-8-1 (6-5 SPNY)
This Light Heavyweight matchup sees two primarily grappling fighters clash. Andrews is a black belt BJJ submission specialist, Wilkinson has the extra dimension of clinch fighting to add to his submission skills. Wilkinson will have to draw on his experience to stuff the early takedown attempts that he knows will be coming from Andrews, if he can keep the fight standing he will win. Andrews on top on the ground in this fight would be very hard to stop.
I’m leaning towards the upset here with Andrews winning by submission.
6: Super Heavyweight
Troy McLure 12-5 (9-3 SPNY) vs Jukka Omena 8-2 (1-1 SPNY)
McLure doesn’t throw a lot of punches but he throws them hard and lands a disconcerting amount of them. His style of going all out for a fast knockout has left him vulnerable to counters in the past, but only 4 times in his career has a fight lasted more than 1 round. Omena is a much harder worker able to grind out a decision or a knockout, primarily on his feet but with much more skill on the ground than McLure. Whilst takedowns are not Omena’s natural strength it would be difficult to see him lasting 3 rounds on the feet against McLure.
I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen of Omena so far, but McLure but KO in the 1st seems the likely outcome to me.
7: Welterweight
Ogami Itto 15-8 (SPNY Debut) vs Alysian Karalis 17-17 (1-2 SPNY)
Itto arrives at SPNY with a big reputation that has been tarnished by his recent 3 fight losing streak. Very well rounded, he is active on his feet and surprisingly efficient on the ground, the one place he does struggle is in the clinch. Tonight he is set to be tested by journeyman Karalis who has a similar well rounded style but a far more effective clinch.
This one seems to me to be Karalis’ chance to pull off a big upset. Itto is solid but his recent form seems to have sapped his confidence. Karalis by decision.
8: Welterweight
Phan Tran Le 12-6 (2-2 SPNY) vs Calvin McCork 11-14-1 (0-1 SPNY)
Le had a perfect 2 from 2 start at SPNY but has lost his last two fights, desperate to avoid this becoming a losing streak he is looking for a fast finish over McCork. McCork would rather grappler than stand against a kick boxer of the skill Le represents. If McCork can get an early takedown this might be interesting but I’d back Le to knock him out before that happens.
Le by knockout in the 1st.
9: Light Heavyweight
Robert Gibson 9-11 (SPNY Debut) vs Austin Anderson 8-4 (2-1 SPNY)
Gibson arrives at SPNY and sadly I feel he is mismatched in his first fight. Anderson is an ex-Olympic wrestling representative who could have been a professional boxer. If he stands he will be outmatched in boxing skill, if he sticks to his usual fight plan of shooting for the takedown he finds himself on the ground against an Olympic wrestler. Also counting against Gibson is that he has a history of cutting in fights. The only thing in Gibson’s favour is that he is a decent submission exponent, so he may be able to catch out Anderson.
Anderson to win by KO in the 2nd.
10: Middleweight
Dack Fayden 5-1 (SPNY Debut) vs Dan Stann 18-18-3 (0-1-1 SPNY)
23 year old jujitsu specialist Fayden makes his SPNY debut against journeyman Stann and will be looking to make a statement. I’d like to see Fayden work on his stand up, his overreliance on an early takedown to fight on the ground will only take him so far in the sport and I see the potential for bigger things from him. Stann knows that he can spoil the party for the younger man by stuffing the takedown and using his solid boxing to do some damage.
Stann won’t be a pushover, but I see the youngster Fayden adding another submission win to his growing profile.
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