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SPNY 150: Surov vs Van Winkle II Preview
Good evening and welcome to the Liberty Dome here in New York City, for those of you lucky enough to get tickets to SPNY’s 150th event you will get to see two title fights tonight. The headline event will be a rematch of SPNY 124’s 5 round epic decision in favour of Alexei Surov over Robert Van Winkle in the Middleweight division. The semi-main event will be the first Light Heavyweight title defence of Jason Krutcher up against Jonny Bones. There are 8 fights on the undercard on what should be one of the biggest nights in the history of MMA here in New York.
Main Event: Middleweight Title
Alexei Surov (c) 28-10 (3-0 SPNY) vs Robert Van Winkle 22-9 (5-1 SPNY)
SPNY’s pound-for-pound king Alexei Surov has been away plying his trade against all comers in super fight events and a semi final run at TWGC 2. Tonight he is back to defend his title against Van Winkle in a rematch of SPNY 124’s main event. I had that fight scored 49-46 to Surov as did one of the judges; the other two saw it closer with Surov by 48-47 and Van Winkle has followed that up with 3 straight wins to prove he is still the No. 1 contender for Surov’s title.
Surov represented Russia in Olympic wrestling and has a Red belt in BJJ making him one of the most dangerous grapplers in world MMA. Whilst his submissions are extremely dangerous his ground & pound can’t be underestimated, although in his recent fights against fellow world class grapplers finishes haven’t been as common as they were earlier in his career. Surov will know he is not going to match it with Van Winkle in the stand up but will back his abilities to dominate on the ground.
Van Winkle put up a much stronger fight than many expected from him in his first fight against Surov and since then no other Middleweight at SPNY has been able to match him. Van Winkle is a magnificent grappler but will tonight be in one of the rarest situations in his career that he is not the more fancied than his opponent. Van Winkle has the ability to grind out a decision if he can keep the fight standing, but I don’t see him having the ability to keep this on its feet for long enough to snatch more than one or two rounds using that tactic. On the ground should Van Winkle win the top position he can do some damage, but he will need to find a finish to win this fight and that has never been his strength.
Van Winkle will put up one hell of a challenge in this one but I expect Surov to just be too good for him. If you like a grappling war this could be the best fight you see all year, but at the end of the 25 minutes I expect to hear Surov declared the winner.
Semi-Main Event: Light Heavyweight Title
Jason Krutcher (c) 32-15 (6-3 SPNY) vs Jonny Bones 18-8-4 (9-5-3 SPNY)
It’s hard to remember that Krutcher had a shaky 1-3 start to his SPNY career now that his current winning streak has hit 5 fights with his win over the veteran Belin Billet in their fight for the vacant Light Heavyweight title. Krutcher is a very experienced striker and despite his 4 inch reach disadvantage should he be able to keep this fight on standing he should be well on his way to a successful title defence.
Bones still feels aggrieved that after drawing his fight against Ballantine for the vacant title that he wasn’t given another shot immediately and tonight will be his opportunity to prove the matchmakers wrong. Bones has good stand up but will want to take this one to the ground as soon as possible; he knows Krutcher has very accurate punching and Bones will want to avoid that and dominate with his ground & pound from the top position where he will back himself to finish the fight.
I see Krutcher getting the better of the first two rounds, but by the 3rd I think Bones will come good and finish this by TKO in the 3rd or 4th.
3: Light Heavyweight
Belin Billet 34-23-2 (6-3 SPNY) vs Noel Smith 26-14 (SPNY Debut)
Billet showed a drive that many didn’t expect him to have at his age and at this point in his career to win 4 straight fights going into his vacant title clash with Krutcher. To say I was disappointed with his performance is an understatement and I think even he will admit that he got his tactics so horribly wrong that the fight could not have gone worse for him. Tonight he gets the opportunity to rebuild against an org newcomer and he will be desperate to make amends. His best advantage tonight will almost certainly be his versatility and he will need to draw on all his experience to out gun Smith.
Smith has had a varied career leading into his joining SPNY, but what will endear him to fans is that in his last 12 or so fights he has come out from the opening bell with an all or nothing attitude taking risks to look for a finish. Boxing is his big strength but he also has very dangerous ground & pound which will make him a chance of becoming one of the very few fighters to ever stop Billet.
Smith could be dangerous in this division, but I think Billet has at least one more big one left in him; Billet by decision.
4: Middleweight
Vic Thory 15-5 (13-5 SPNY) vs Vartan Mamikonyan 12-7 (3-1 SPNY)
Crowd favourite Thory is in the best form of his career since his unsuccessful title bid at SPNY 73, a win over Mamikonyan tonight would make it 4 in a row for him and could see him only one win away from becoming the No. 1 contender for the winner of tonight’s Middleweight title fight. Tonight Thory’s job will be to keep this fight standing; the power in his fists and his almost 4 inch reach advantage should be enough to see him dominate the stand up, but Thory is not a noted grappler and Mamikonyan is one of the best submission exponents in SPNY. The key to this fight will be controlling the action, if it stays up Thory wins, if it goes to ground Mamikonyan will dominate.
As long as he stays out of the clinch I think Thory has the takedown defence to control the action and comfortably win this fight; Thory by KO.
5: Light Heavyweight
Jarred Rose 16-9 (4-4 SPNY) vs Zuese Zorro 17-15 (SPNY Debut)
Two submission grapplers meet in this one with the slightly more versatile Rose taking on SPNY debutant Zorro. I feel that Rose’s ability to control the action and mix up his offence with strikes from the ground should be enough to see him win the fight, but the more interesting question to me will be how he will win.
Personally I see Rose’s ground strikes playing the deciding role in this fight; Rose by KO.
6: Welterweight
Alan Bundy 40-19 (SPNY Debut) vs Sabin Figaro 34-13 (1-0 SPNY)
Two very experienced veterans are set to clash in this Welterweight bout with the winner likely to become a serious contender for Atomi’s title. Bundy has won his last 4 fights before joining and Figaro has already won his first SPNY fight, both fighters are capable of winning by knockout, submission, or decision and this one seems set to be a war. Personally I think Bundy probably has an edge in terms of skill, but Figaro has the better record when it comes to finishing fights.
Bundy by decision for me.
7: Light Heavyweight
Andy Chick 10-2 (4-1 SPNY) vs Bobby Tupperill 23-21 (3-1 SPNY)
Chick returns to Light Heavyweight where he had success early in his career having gone 4-1 at Heavyweight with SPNY. Tupperill’s 3 wins since joining SPNY have seen him move clear to the top of the submission wins list with all fighters registered in New York, and just 3 submission wins off making the world wide top 10. The crux of this fight is in the striker vs grappler aspect of Chick’s Muay Thai against Tupperill’s jujitsu. Whoever controls the zone will win the fight.
I like Chick to keep this one standing, for his sake I hope he gets a KO to win over the SPNY crowd who are still standoffish to him.
8: Lightweight
Gabriel Fenili 15-12 (1-1 SPNY) vs Mac Hansen 26-19-1 (12-9 SPNY)
For Hansen it was not 3rd time lucky as he lost the vacant Lightweight title fight against Winston McCall at SPNY 139. Tonight he returns to the cage against submission grappler Fenili. Hansen prefers to fight with his wrestling and use his ground & pound to win, but tonight I expect he will not want to go to ground given the amazing submission skills of Fenili. Almost 2 inches of reach will help Hansen in the stand up where he will have a distinct advantatge, but should Fenili get the fight to ground I expect he will have enough to finish Hansen.
Fenili looks the goods to get this to ground and finish Hansen by submission.
9: Middleweight
Trey Anastasio 13-8 (1-2 SPNY) vs Jonathan Moxon 21-19-2 (3-2-1 SPNY)
In what will no doubt be a grappling war as two submission fighters clash I do not expect Moxon’s stronger stand up to come into the result. To me Anastasio has the better takedowns and is better able to control the action on the ground which suggests to me he should be well on his way to a win. Moxon has strong enough submissions to stay in this fight even on his back, but I expect that Anastasio’s better positions should be able to negate most of the threat.
Anastasio by submission.
10: Light Heavyweight
Dominic Rude 16-6 (2-3 SPNY) vs Nicky Salita 27-14 (SPNY Debut)
The heavy handed rude punched his way to the top of his previous fight orgs but has found the level of competition at SPNY much tougher struggling especially with the quality submission grapplers he has faced. Versatile grappler Salita is working his way back to prime form after a shock split with his management last year left him high and dry. Like several other fights tonight the striker vs grappler aspect will determine the outcome, in this case whether Rude will find the punch to put Salita away or whether Salita will get the takedown and use either his ground strikes or submissions to finish Rude.
To me this one is 50/50 but I will back Rude to win by KO on a hunch.
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